E.L. Katina, M.R. Konorev
Prognostic factors of the gastric polyps recurrence after performed endoscopic polypectomy
Educational Establishment «Vitebsk State Order of Peoples’ Friendship Medical University», Vitebsk, Republic of Belarus
Abstract.
Objectives. To determine significant prognostic factors reliably affecting the recurrence of gastric polyps after endoscopic polypectomy.
Material and methods. The study of the remote results after performed polypectomy was conducted in terms of up to 2,5 years. The recurrence of gastric polyp revealed during endoscopy was defined as an endpoint. As a result, all patients (n=93) were divided into two groups: the 1st group (n=44) included patients with the recurrence of polyps, the 2nd group (n=49) was composed of patients without the recurrence of polyps. To evaluate any unfavorable prognostic factors that significantly affect the recurrence of gastric polyps binary logistic regression and ROC-analysis were used.
Results. As a result of the conducted study the predictors of poor prognosis significantly affecting the recurrence of gastric polyps were found. They are the number of polyps, polyp size, the presence of erosions in the mucosa of the polyp. The prognostic model of gastric polyps recurrence was developed on the basis of the number of polyps, polyp size, the presence of erosions in the mucosa of the polyp. This model corresponds to the criteria of «excellent» quality model, possesses the sensitivity of 81,82% and specificity of 85,71%.
Conclusions. The constructed model of logistic regression allows to calculate the probability of the recurrence of gastric polyps after performed endoscopic polypectomy.
Key words: polyp, stomach, recurrence.
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