Myslivets M.G., Paramonova N.S., Smirnov V.Y.
Determining the risk of juvenile rheumatoid arthritis development in patients with the articular syndrome
Grodno State Medical University, Grodno, Republic of Belarus
Vestnik VGMU. 2019;18(2):60-66.
Objectives. To develop a model for determining the risk of juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (JRA) development in patients with the articular syndrome.
Material and methods. 80 patients with the articular syndrome were examined. Among them there were 47 patients with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis, 33 children with arthritis, non-associated with autoimmune pathology. Clinical data, C-reactive protein (CRP) indices, those of seromucoid, the number of leukocytes, alkaline phosphatase levels were assessed. The method of high performance liquid chromatography was used to determine the level of homocysteine and sulfur-containing amino acids in the blood serum. The level of 25(OH)D in the blood serum was estimated by ELISA test. In order to identify the signs that influence the development of juvenile rheumatoid arthritis in patients with the articular syndrome the regression analysis with the construction of a mathematical equation was made. ROC analysis was conducted for assessment of the received model quality.
Results. Distinctions of the studied indicators among patients of both groups were revealed. The values are statistically significant, (р<0.05). According to the results of the regression analysis the mathematical model with the sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 92.1% was developed. It helps to evaluate the risk of juvenile rheumatoid arthritis development in patients having the articular syndrome with the diagnostic effectiveness 87.0%.
Key words: children, joints, juvenile rheumatoid arthritis, diagnosing, regression analysis, risk of development.
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Information about authors:
Myslivets M.G. – lecturer of the Chair of Childhood Diseases No.2, Grodno State Medical University;
Paramonova N.S. – Doctor of Medical Sciences, professor, head of the Chair of Childhood Diseases No. 2, Grodno State Medical University;
Smirnov V.Y. – Candidate of Biological Sciences, senior research officer of the Scientific-Research Laboratory, Grodno State Medical University.