DOI: https://doi.org/10.22263/2312-4156.2024.4.105
V.V. Ravskaya, N.S. Paramonova, R.N. Khokha
Prediction of the risk of developing severe allergic rhinitis associated with sensitization to plant pollen
Grodno State Medical University, Grodno, Republic of Belarus
Vestnik VGMU. 2024;23(4):105-112.
Abstract.
Objectives. To develop a model for predicting severe allergic rhinitis associated with plant pollen.
Material and methods. All children with allergic rhinitis (n=50) participating in the study were divided into 2 groups: group 1 (n=21) with mild allergic rhinitis and group 2 (n=29) with moderate/severe allergic rhinitis. A statistical analysis of clinical, laboratory and anamnestic parameters was carried out, which made it possible to identify a number of factors that increase the likelihood of developing a more severe course of allergic rhinitis in children. Five variables were selected (the age of diagnosing allergic rhinitis, the number of neutrophils in peripheral blood, the number of eosinophils in rhinocytogram, the presence of sensitization to tree pollen, the level of stable nitric oxide (NOx) metabolites in blood serum, which were entered into a binary logistic regression model.
As a result of the regression analysis made, a mathematical model was developed that has a sensitivity of 82.76%, a specificity of 92.1% and makes it possible to establish in the early stages the likelihood of a more severe course of allergic rhinitis in children.
Conclusions. The developed method for predicting a higher severity of allergic rhinitis associated with pollen will make it possible to correct the treatment of this disease in its early stages.
Keywords: allergic rhinitis, pollen, children, prediction, regression analysis.
Acknowlegments. The authors express their gratitude to the reviewer of the article for critical reading of their manuscript.
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Submitted 11.06.2024
Accepted 28.08.2024
Information about authors:
V.V. Ravskaya – lecturer of the Chair of Childhood Diseases No.2, Grodno State Medical University, https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4434-3128,
e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра. – Victoriya V. Ravskaya;
N.S. Paramonova – Doctor of Medical Sciences, professor, head of the Chair of Childhood Diseases No.2, Grodno State Medical University, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4823-7819
R.N. Khokha – Candidate of Medical Sciences, associate professor of the Chair of Childhood Diseases No.2, Grodno State Medical University, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1002-1783
