Prediction of sepsis in a burn disease with specific indices taken into account
1Belarusian State Medical University, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
2Minsk City Clinical Emergency Hospital, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
Vestnik VGMU. 2017;16(2):79-84.
Sepsis is the most serious complication of a burn disease. The determination of high-risk sepsis groups allows to optimize the treatment of seriously burnt patients. The existing prognostication systems for the sepsis development in severely burnt patients are difficult to use, or they are not sufficiently reliable. Optimally it is necessary to create predictive models based on clinical and laboratory indices, including those that are specific for burn injuries.
Objectives. To create prognostic models of sepsis development in patients with severe burns based on the clinical and laboratory criteria, related to the pathogenesis of burn injuries and infectious complications. Material and methods. The cohort prospective-retrospective study of severely burnt patients with the severity index of more than 30 units was conducted. To create predictive models binary logistic regression method was used, model testing was carried out with ROC-analysis. Results. The area under curve (AUC) of the model was 0,910 and 0,849 (the model of excellent and of very good quality). The sensitivity of the prognostic model accounted for 86,4% and 82,5%, specificity – 82,2% and 81,8%. This model of sepsis prognostication in a burn disease can be used to optimize the treatment of severely burnt patients while rendering medical aid to them in the republican and regional burn centers of the Republic of Belarus.
Key words: sepsis, prognostication, burn disease, hypocholesterolemia, immunoglobulin G.
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Information about authors:
Zhylinski Y.V. – surgeon of the burns department, Minsk City Clinical Emergency Hospital, post-graduate of the Chair of General Surgery, Belarusian State Medical University.